Mineral Tax Revenue Analysis
30-year analysis of Wyoming's tax elasticity and boom-bust cycles driven by the mineral economy (1995-2024)
Sales Tax Growth
Average annual growth (inflation-adjusted, 1995-2024)
Income Growth
Average annual personal income growth (inflation-adjusted)
Structural Gap
Income growing faster than tax base (erosion)
Wyoming Sales & Use Tax Elasticity (1995-2024)
Understanding Elasticity
Tax elasticity measures how tax revenue responds to income changes. An elasticity of 0.62 means: if personal income grows by 1%, sales tax revenue grows by only 0.62%.
- • Green peaks (booms): Energy sector expansions drive tax collections far above income growth
- • Red valleys (busts): Energy downturns cause tax collections to fall even when income is stable
- • Purple dashed line: Long-run average showing structural weakness in tax base
Boom-Bust Cycles in Wyoming's Mineral Economy
Extreme volatility periods showing the impact of energy sector cycles on state tax revenue
Economic Downturn: Tax collections declined despite growing income. Mineral sector contraction reduced state revenue.
Energy Boom: Tax collections grew 12.85x faster than income. Extreme expansion in mineral sector activity.
Economic Downturn: Tax collections declined despite stable income. Mineral sector contraction reduced state revenue.
Energy Boom: Tax collections grew 8.59x faster than income.
Energy Boom: Tax collections grew 19.52x faster than income. Extreme expansion in mineral sector activity.
Economic Downturn: Tax collections declined despite growing income. Mineral sector contraction reduced state revenue.
Economic Downturn: Tax collections declined despite growing income. Mineral sector contraction reduced state revenue.
Key Findings
Structural Erosion
Over 30 years, personal income grew at 2.9% annually while sales tax collections grew at only 2.2%, indicating the tax base is not keeping pace with economic growth.
Extreme Volatility
Annual elasticity ranged from -1.39 (2013 bust) to 19.52 (2017 boom), showing the outsized impact of Wyoming's mineral economy on state revenue.
Revenue Vulnerability
Negative elasticity during recessions (2003, 2013, 2021) demonstrates Wyoming's procyclical revenue vulnerability—tax collections fall precisely when government services are most needed.
Boom-Bust Pattern
3 boom periods and 4 bust periods over 30 years reflect the inherent instability of mineral-dependent state budgeting.
Data Sources
- • Wyoming Economic Analysis Division (EADIV) - Sales & Use Tax Elasticities Report
- • Wyoming Department of Revenue - Sales & Use Tax Collections (1995-2024)
- • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - Personal Income Data (inflation-adjusted)
Analysis covers 30 years of data (1995-2024). All growth rates are inflation-adjusted (real dollars). Elasticity measures the percentage change in tax collections relative to percentage change in personal income.